Greater Manchester house prices still retreating

House prices are rising by 2.9% according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics - but a closer look shows this is not the case in Greater Manchester.

The latest housing market update suggests the recovery of house prices in our area is not as marked as the ONS national report implies. Using data from the Land Registry, a less impressive set of results is noted both at the national and the local level. This indicates a 0.5% increase in house sale values on the year to May 2013 which, whilst low, is the thirteenth consecutive month of growth.

At the Greater Manchester level average prices in May 2013 now stand at £102,569, down 2.3% on the year. Whilst there was a rise of 1% in average prices from April to May, the trend remains one of gradual weakening. Prices are now at a similar level to that of autumn 2004.

Volumes of sales have been falling year-on-year since 2010, averaging around 2,000 per month, over 60% lower than the peak of the market in 2007 - the lowest since pre-1995. The current trend is near-flat, though slightly weighted to the downside.

The house price index highlights over nine years of lost price gain as well as the current falling trend. Average growth trend growth since 1995 is 4.47%, suggesting that prices in Greater Manchester have now fallen below that expectation. There is currently little evidence that the Funding for Lending scheme is yet having any impact in our region.