Crime figures tumble but re-offending challenge remains

The latest Manchester Monitor – a snapshot of the economic wellbeing of Greater Manchester – this month highlights that crime figures have fallen significantly in the conurbation, down 11.7% with almost 25,000 fewer offences in the last 12 months. However, new data about reoffending released by the Ministry of Justice underlines the reoffending remains a concern, particularly amongst juveniles – although data only runs until June 2011, this shows juvenile reoffending in Greater Manchester rose to 38.9% from 35.9% between July 2010 and June 2011.

Tackling recidivism has been prioritised by the new Greater Manchester Police and Crime Plan as part of its overall ambition to create safer communities in the region.

Turning to the conurbation’s economy, this month’s analysis reveals a mixed picture for the first quarter of 2013, where despite manufacturing export orders rising sharply, weaker demand across the service sector and a contraction for manufacturing in the domestic market suggests that the economy is remains weak.

There was a 1,100 (1.3%) decrease in the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in March 2013, down to 85,500 from 86,600 in February 2013. Whilst this is encouraging, the decrease is less than that seen at the North West (1.7%) and GB (1.8%) level, and recent fluctuations in the figures mean that consistent month-on-month declines are needed before recovery can be claimed.

Land Registry Data shows that there are now wide variations in house prices across Greater Manchester whilst the average house costs £101,897 – 3% (£3,161) less than 12 months previously. Only three districts in the region have house prices above the national average (£161,793) with prices in the remaining seven districts all significantly below this figure.

In contrast March 2013 was another very good month for Greater Manchester’s visitor economy. Passenger numbers at Manchester Airport continued into their tenth consecutive month of year-on-year growth, reaching 1.2 million. Meanwhile, hotel data shows that occupancy levels both in the city centre and Greater Manchester helped to produce the strongest first quarter of the calendar year since 2007.

Baron Frankal, director of economic strategy at New Economy, said: “That crime figures have taken a tumble is certainly a positive step for Greater Manchester; however even greater priority now needs to be given over to tackling reoffending – an area that would pay great dividends financially and to society if we saw greater improvements. Reoffending rates have remained broadly static over the six years to 2011 and remain particularly high amongst juveniles, so this is a clear challenge for the new Greater Manchester Police and Crime Commissioner going forward.

“Crime aside, last month there were some welcome distractions from the ongoing weakness of the national economy. The conurbation’s visitor economy is enjoying it’s best start since pre-recession 2007, with hotels regularly filling up, meanwhile Manchester Airport has now seen a 1.5% jump in passenger numbers year-on-year compared to its rivals Heathrow (1.0%), Birmingham (0.6%) and Gatwick (-0.7%). New services to Moscow and St Petersburg with easyJet, Stavanger with Norwegian, and Warsaw with Ryanair should help continue this growth throughout 2013.

“Manchester Airports Group is also working very hard to secure direct flights to China – no coincidence given that a major step towards strengthening our link’s with the world’s fastest growing market took place last week with the launch of the Manchester–China Forum by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. This is an ambitious commitment to building real partnerships with counterparts in China with the potential to amplify exponentially Manchester’s position as a gateway for Chinese business to the North of England.”