North West businesses report strong growth in 2013

Mick Mayor, Chair of Chambers of Commerce North West

The North West saw stronger than expected growth last year, according to the latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) from Chambers of Commerce North West.

While 2013 began with warnings of a triple-dip recession and predictions of low growth, the QES shows the region’s economy saw a spurt of growth during the summer which continued to the end of the year. Not only did the triple-dip recession never emerge, but revised figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that even the double-dip recession never occurred.

The QES found that the manufacturing sector increased its growth rate further into the fourth quarter of last year, with international demand significantly outpacing domestic demand. The sector saw strong growth in employment with the main challenge being obtaining the right skilled labour.

Growth in the service sector was broadly flat on the previous quarter, but was still at the level of the record post-recession highs seen in Q3. There was a rise in employment levels, indicating that the sector is recruiting quickly to cope with increased demand.

This sustained growth at the end of the year has led economic experts at North West Chambers of Commerce to revise growth figures for 2013. They now estimate that growth for the whole year was 2% and predict growth of 2.5% for 2014, perhaps moving higher to 2.7% for 2015.

Mick Mayor, Chair of Chambers of Commerce North West (pictured), said: “The results are positive and suggest that the recovery is finally becoming entrenched. Sales and orders are strong, employment growth continues at a good rate, investment and cash flow indicators are positive, but we should be cautious about assuming all headwinds have eased.

“Business costs, whether through business rates or salaries are likely to increase this year. International trade will continue to be hard fought for, as we now grow faster than our principal trading partners. Households are dusting off their bank cards, but incomes are still constrained.

“The post-recession world is unlikely to be as green and pleasant as those heady days pre-2007, but it appears that the recovery is now here to stay. The winners will be those who find the way to take maximum advantage.”

This quarter 1,241 businesses from across the North West that collectively employ 113,838 people completed the survey.

From the manufacturing sector 377 businesses employing 32,569 people responded to the survey.

From the service sector 865 businesses employing 81,269 people responded to the survey.

The QES is produced by Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce on behalf of Chambers of Commerce North West. The following North West Chambers contributed to the report: Altrincham & Sale, Cumbria, East Cheshire. East Lancashire, Greater Manchester, Halton, Knowsley, Lancaster, Liverpool, Macclesfield, North & Western Lancashire, Sefton, South Cheshire, St Helens, Warrington, West Cheshire & North Wales and Wirral.