Financial and creative industries forecast to drive growth in 2013

The latest quarterly edition of the Manchester Monitor, an analysis of current trends in the sub-regional economy, shows a number of reasons to be optimistic for the year ahead.

Informed by the recent update of Greater Manchester’s Forecasting Model (GMFM), it points to the sectors that are most likely to drive the conurbations growth over the next decade; namely financial services and the creative industries.

It is expected that financial and professional services will produce more than 45,000 jobs within the next 10 years, accounting for 40% of Greater Manchester’s GVA (Gross Value Added) growth. Over the same period, the creative industries could bring an estimated 23,000 new jobs to Greater Manchester – growth of 13%.

The datasets provided within the monitor also demonstrate that Greater Manchester’s businesses have shown resilience throughout tough trading conditions. Statistics from the English Business Survey (EBS) indicate that 75% of firms in Greater Manchester have reported their levels of output were either higher or remained the same in Q3 of 2012 when compared with Q2. Looking ahead, 44% of businesses expected their output to be higher in Q4 2012 than Q3.

The jobseekers markets also demonstrated a slight improvement, having shown a decline of 1,100 jobseekers allowance (JSA) claimants (-1.3%) between October and November 2012. The drop has been attributed to the temporary seasonal vacancies in the run up to Christmas. However, on an annual basis the overall number of JSA claimants is 1,600 (2.0%) higher than the same time in 2011.

Baron Frankal, director of economic strategy at New Economy, said: “With two weeks to go until ‘Blue Monday’, said to be the most depressing day of the year, our latest Manchester Monitor demonstrates plenty of areas that should keep spirits high over the coming months.”

“In addition to the continued strong performance of Greater Manchester’s visitor economy, as well as an ongoing decline in its crime figures, we’re seeing a particularly positive reception from Greater Manchester’s business community; one that is in stark contrast to difficult trading circumstances it has faced in the last year.”

“Looking ahead, significant growth is expected to come from financial services and the creative industries in the next year and beyond. This is in addition to other sectors which are also expected to strengthen Greater Manchester’s economy going forward, particularly manufacturing which is estimated to increase its current GVA output by £1.3 billion in the next ten years.”

“As always, there continues to be cause for concern, particularly with regards to employment levels in Greater Manchester and the currently stagnant housing market. Unfortunately there isn’t a one-stop solution but a continued nudge towards growth markets driven by robust policies – as is demonstrated by current efforts to boost our local textiles trade – will be positive steps in the right direction.”