Greater Manchester’s economy forecast to grow more than previously expected

Revised economic forecasts for Greater Manchester suggest the region’s GVA (Gross Value Added) output over the next decade will be slightly better than previously anticipated, rising to 3.0% by 2014 and peaking at 3.3% in 2017.

The amendment to last year’s forecast (which predicted a 2.9% peak in GVA over the same period) is good news for the conurbation’s economic outlook.

The forecasts are the latest outputs from the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) – produced by Oxford Economics for New Economy on behalf of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA).

The GMFM is updated annually and produces results for Greater Manchester’s districts by analysing past statistics in light of the latest global and macroeconomic conditions.

Although the outlook is positive for Greater Manchester’s economic growth, it is not expected to boost regional jobs creation to levels previously anticipated, partly because job losses during the recession were not as severe as originally expected.

It is now estimated there will be approximately 96,600 additional jobs created in Greater Manchester between 2012 and 2022, slightly lower than last year’s forecast of over 100,000 new jobs in the same period.

Baron Frankal, director of economic strategy for New Economy, said: “The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model is one of our key economic tools. The latest update takes into account the current local and national economic climate, and the very difficult conditions we are experiencing to suggest the conurbation will now see faster growth in GVA output over the medium-term.

“Economic indicators have also led to a slight downward revision on our forecast for jobs creation.

“There are various reasons for this but in particular, it is thought that whilst the labour market should improve, unlike the previous recession that saw job losses, this time around there was a greater move to part-time work and self-employment, and these people are expected to migrate to full-time positions as employer confidence returns.”