Job prospects in the North West hit lowest level for over two years

The North West jobs outlook has dropped seven percentage points on last quarter according to Manpower, the world’s workforce experts. At 0%, employment prospects in the North West stand at their lowest level in more than two years, and well below the national average of +4%.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on responses from 2,101 UK employers. It asks whether employers intend to hire additional workers or reduce the size of their workforce in the coming quarter. It is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind and is used as a key economic statistic by both the Bank of England and the UK government.

“The jobs Outlook reveals a challenging picture for jobseekers in the North West. The drop in hiring intentions is driven in part by the public sector, where confidence has slipped nationwide following the Government’s renewed commitment to cuts. The North West, the North East and Yorkshire and Humberside together employ the greatest proportion of public sector workers in England, so it follows that recruitment in these regions is bearing the brunt of public sector pessimism. We are also seeing a marked divide between job prospects across the north and those in London – a clear sign that the Government’s plans to rebalance the economy through the creation of a Northern Powerhouse have so far failed to ignite,” says Greg Hollis, Operations Manager at Manpower UK.

“While the overall Outlook in the North West has dropped off since last quarter, those with the right skills are finding opportunities. For example, in Manchester, we are seeing strong demand for employees in financial services and for salespeople to work in call centres. In-demand applicants can be selective about the roles they apply for, and as competition between employers grows, the salaries they can expect to achieve are also increasing,” adds Greg Hollis.

Overall, the UK jobs market stands at its least optimistic level in three years, at +4%. ManpowerGroup’s data suggests employers are already feeling the impact of the National Living Wage, scaling back their recruitment plans in the fourth quarter of 2015. The policy will see six million people receive a 6% pay rise each year until 2020, but the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the extra costs could mean up to 60,000 job losses.

“An unintended consequence of the introduction of the new Living Wage is that firms might try to bypass the legislation altogether. We anticipate that some employers may look to mitigate the extra costs by taking on more younger or self-employed workers, who are not entitled to the National Living Wage. While on the surface this could be good news for youth unemployment, which currently stands at 16%, it could push a greater proportion of young people into low skilled jobs, resulting in an influx of less experienced workers into social care and other sectors hardest hit by the new legislation. Meanwhile, candidates under the age of 25 have been asking us why it is they will be paid less despite doing equal work,” says James Hick, ManpowerGroup Solutions Managing Director.

At +8%, optimism in the capital is twice the national average, despite the fact that employers in its largest industry – finance and business services – record their weakest Outlook for three years, at +4%. The job prospects in the north stand in stark contrast to London, with the North East (-2%) and Yorkshire and Humberside (+3%), together with the North West, all lagging behind the UK average.

In the rest of the country, the jobs market looks mixed. The East (+12%), Wales (+11%), the East Midlands (+10%) and the South East (+6%) all stand above the UK average. But the South West (+2%), Northern Ireland (+2%), Scotland (0%) and the West Midlands (0%) fall behind the national picture.