Greater Manchester strengthens its economic forecasting abilities

A powerful forecasting tool that is used to help shape policy and strategy on behalf of Greater Manchester is getting a major upgrade.

The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) – produced by Oxford Economics for New Economy – has influenced many of the conurbation’s recent economic development projects, through its predictions of changes in employment, population and economic trends.

The upgrade will add new scenario capabilities to the sophisticated economic model, allowing for users to model the impact of different changes to the economy, skills levels, population demographics and housing.

Dr Alexander Roy, head of research for New Economy, said: “Over the last few years, GMFM has become an increasingly important resource for informing major strategic policy, including the 2009 Manchester Independent Economic Review, and the subsequent Greater Manchester Strategies.

“Of course, forecasting is not an exact science, but GMFM’s links to Oxford Economics’ widely respected global, UK and regional macroeconomic forecasts gives us unrivalled baseline evidence to inform Greater Manchester policy.

“The added development of scenario capabilities now takes the tool to another level and allows us to ask the ‘what if?’ questions about new policies and strategies.”

Kerry Houston, head of regional model development for Oxford Economics, said: “We are delighted to continue to provide GMFM and support the work of New Economy and its partners. By the end of this new contract, GMFM will be over a decade old and thus we have built a wealth of unrivalled knowledge and expertise within the area. The addition of scenario capabilities to the service will add a powerful complement to the work of New Economy and its partners”.

Last year’s update to GMFM provided forecasts up to and including 2032. The latest available data – including recent upward trends in overall economic performance - will be used to refresh current estimations.

The findings of the 2013 update to GMFM will be presented and debated at an event staged by New Economy and Oxford Economics on Wednesday 4 December at Manchester Conference Centre.