Nine in ten councils will run out of spaces in care homes within five years

Research by consumer group Which? has revealed almost nine in 10 council areas across England could experience a shortfall in care home places by 2022 unless urgent action is taken.

The watchdog’s analysis found 87 percent of councils may not have enough places to meet prospective demand by 2022 as care needs across the country are ‘already at breaking point’.

The care home population is larger than the city of Manchester with 433,000 people in 11,293 care homes – and this figure is set to grow. It is estimated that by 2022, 7.2 million people of the age of 75 will require care.

The analysis found by 2022, there will be an estimated lack of 42,000 beds across England, 10 percent higher than expected. Only 20 of 150 areas nationwide are on track to keep up with likely demand.

Of the 130 that would have to increase provision, 14 areas will have to increase their current number of beds by 25% or more. Bracknell Forest in Berkshire is predicted to be the worst hit area with a shortfall of 53 percent, amounting to 161 beds.

However, figures for the borough of Rochdale are some of the lowest: 95 beds will be required, a shortfall of 6 percent. Stockport is the lowest in the Greater Manchester region, with a four percent shortfall, equal to 102 beds.

In comparison, neighbouring borough Oldham is one of the worst hit nationally and the worst hit in Greater Manchester, with an expected 23 percent shortfall – a lack of 400 beds.

While the figures paint a mostly negative picture, there are a small number of council areas that are likely to see a surplus in the number of care home beds they provide, highlighting how mixed the regional picture is in England.

Bexley is estimated to have 370 more places than anticipated demand by 2022, while spaces in Peterborough, Stoke-on-Trent, Portsmouth and Trafford are also expected to exceed demand by 201, 290, 145 and 155, respectively.


According to research from the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), it can take up to between five and seven years to plan, build and open a new care home, meaning providers are less able to quickly respond to changes in demand.

Alex Hayman, Which? Managing Director of Public Markets, said: “It’s heart-breaking that families who have no choice but to move a relative into care then have the additional stress of not knowing if they can find a space in a suitable home that’s close to loved ones.

“It is vital that the Competition and Markets Authority looks at the potentially huge local disparities in provision, which could reach crisis point if nothing is done.”

The research used population projections to determine how many care places will be needed to keep the provision levels for the over-80s at the same level as it is presently. It was then compared to what will be provided by 2022 if pace in the number of places continues to increase.

Dianne David, assistant director for integrated commissioning care at Rochdale Borough Council, said: “It is a good thing that people are living longer and several years ago we recognised the impact this might have on care home placements. Through innovative policies and effective partnership work we have developed services that support people to remain living independently in the community for longer. This has enabled us to manage the demand for care home placements and will help us address any future shortfalls”.

Izzi Seccombe, Chairman of the Local Government Association’s Community Wellbeing Board, said: “These findings reinforce our warning about the urgent need to reform adult social care and deliver a long-term sustainable solution that delivers a range of high quality care and support for the growing numbers of people who will need it.

“While the £2 billion announced in the Spring Budget for social care was a step in the right direction, it is only one-off funding and social care services still face an annual £2.3 billion funding gap by 2020. But councils need to be given the freedom and flexibility to spend the additional funding for social care in the places where they feel it will be most effective.

“It is absolutely critical that the Government uses the Autumn Budget to bring forward its consultation for social care announced in the Queen’s Speech, and that it works with local government leaders in delivering a long-term sustainable solution for social care. To tackle the problems we face tomorrow, we must start planning today.

“This must address the issue of long-term funding, but it must also create the conditions necessary to ensure the development of the right kind of care and support services, that can meet the demand of an increasing number of adults with care needs.”