Doctor says Greater Manchester’s economy is in good health

Businesses at the Chamber’s Quarterly Economic Briefing

There was good news for Greater Manchester businesses at the Chamber’s Quarterly Economic Briefing, with strong results from both the manufacturing and service sectors.

The Chamber’s Chief Economist, Dr John Ashcroft, began his presentation with a whistle-stop tour of the global economy, looking at the views of such leading international figures as Janet Yellen of the US Federal Reserve, IMF chief Christine Lagarde and Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England.

After this, Dr Ashcroft homed in on Greater Manchester and gave an overview of the results of the Chamber’s latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES).

He said: “The information that Chamber members give to the QES is extremely powerful and we use this to inform the Manchester Index, which is our tool for modelling what is happening in the local economy and how this matches with an astonishing level of accuracy what the whole UK economy is doing.

“The outlook for the economy is very strong this year. In the manufacturing sector, investment in plant and machinery and training is strong. In the service sector, investment is strong and confidence is strong. Capacity is also moving back to pre-recession levels. All the key indicators show recovery continuing this year.”

But with everything looking so positive, he asked, ‘what are we worried about?’ The answer was a bewildering array of global issues from the Chinese economy to trouble in Ukraine. However he said the real issue the UK should be worrying about is its balance of payments and current account deficit.

He predicted that, while manufacturing remains key to the UK’s economic recovery, the majority of growth would continue to come from the service sector.

The QES presentation was followed by a question and answer session, which covered a range of topics including whether Manchester has a role to play in helping to balance the economic influence of London.

Dr Ashcroft replied that Manchester had a number of strong, growing sectors. He added that the huge infrastructure investment in the Northern Hub and HS2 would be a major boost, improving travelling times and making the city an even more attractive location for businesses.

In answer to a question about Scottish independence, Chris Fletcher, the Chamber’s Director of Policy & Communications, said: “Businesses in the North East fear that a ‘no’ vote could lead to ‘devolution-max’ for Scotland, which would be detrimental to their region. On the other hand, there are reports that a ‘yes’ vote will lead to businesses moving their headquarters from Scotland to England.

“In general, however, the independence debate isn’t having much impact on businesses in England. In fact the outcome of the European elections is likely to have a greater impact on domestic politics.”