Election Predictions

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Robin Parker

We asked former Mayor of Rochdale, Robin Parker for a ward by ward prediction of how he thinks the vote will go in tomorrow's local election.

Mr Parker sees a good day for Labour and a torrid day for the Liberal Democrats and it is difficult to disagree with him given the poor job they did of running the Council until Labour took the reigns, and also the opprobrium heaped on them for being part of the national coalition government.

Word from inside the Labour camp is they are expecting to win 17 of the 20 seats up for grabs.

Mr Parker sees a reasonable day for the Conservatives; given the way the national polls are showing any Conservative holds would be seen as a reasonable result, though if his predictions are on the mark they will be disappointed to lose three recent converts (Jean Ashworth, Mo Sharif and Peter Evans) from the Liberal Democrats, though doubtless it wouldn't come as a great surprise.

Probably the most contentious of Mr Parker's predictions is in Milnrow where Mr Parker sees Allen Brett taking the seat from long standing councillor Irene Davidson. It would be a spectacular result for Mr Brett if he pulled it off given his poor showing as leader of the Council for a year in which he formed an almost unheard of coalition with the Conservatives locally. There is, however, no doubting that Councillor Davidson has the force against her with Labour riding high in the polls nationally and the Lib Dems locally having gone into melt down.

Word on the ground is the Conservatives appear to be doing better in Healey than Mr Parker has picked up and though unlikely, could upset his prediction of a Labour gain from the Liberal Democrats.

The Conservatives are worried about William Hobhouse giving Jane Gartside a run for her money in Bamford, word is the race is too close to call, though we expect Councillor Gartside will hold.

One thing all agree on is there will be some new blood on the Council come Friday morning, most likely joined by some new old blood (Richard Farnell and Allen Brett) and a number of heavyweights (Councillors Ashworth, Clayton and Bailey spring to mind) will suddenly find a lot more time on their hands.


Robin Parker's predictions

Balderstone and Kirkholt
This seat was won easily by Labour from the Liberal Democrats last year and Labour now have the additional campaigning skills of a former leader of twenty years ago, which should strengthen their position in the ward.
Richard Farnell - Labour Gain from Liberal Democrat

Bamford
In 2011 the Liberal Democrats came close to a win but against an unknown opponent. Councillor Jane Gartside’s longevity in the ward should make her favourite.
Jane Gartside - Conservative Hold

Castleton
A councillor for almost thirty years, Pat Flynn moved from Liberal Democrat to Conservative via the interim Independent Alliance, the breakaway group from the Liberal Democrats. Her husband, former councillor Ted Flynn, stood for the Alliance last year but Labour’s Jean Hornby beat the combined votes of both the Alliance and the Liberal Democrats by 317. With Pat joining her husband in retirement, a win for local community activist Billy Sheerin looks inevitable.
Billy Sheerin - Labour Gain from Conservative

Central Rochdale
Farooq Ahmed held this seat for Labour in 2011 with a majority of 2,313, the highest recorded by any party in the history of the metropolitan borough. With the retirement of Liberal Democrat Cllr Zulfiqar Ali, it would be hard to see that being reversed.
Iftikhar Ahmed - Labour Gain from Liberal Democrat

East Middleton
Cllr Donna Martin held this seat for Labour last year with a majority of 1,115, more than doubling the combined votes of both Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates. On that basis Cllr Malcolm Boriss should hold the seat comfortably.
Malcolm Boriss - Labour Hold

Healey
Cllr Tom Bailey is the Liberal Democrat incumbent but last year their candidate came a poor third, with the Conservative beating Labour by 1235 to 1116. This year, while Labour are having to implement the government cuts as the local party in power, last year the Conservatives were still in the lead in the National Opinion Polls. With Labour now recording leads of up to ten points, that should be enough for a Labour gain.
Shaun O’Neill - Labour Gain from Liberal Democrat

Hopwood Hall
Safely held last year by Cllr Susan Emmott with a majority of 1113, we should expect a similar result for Cllr Linda Robinson.
Linda Robinson - Labour Hold

Kingsway
Cllr Karen Burke won this last year with a majority of 1,458, being 690 votes more than all the other candidates combined. This year the incumbent Liberal Democrat Cllr David Clayton is standing but should not be strong enough to stand up to the way the electoral wind is blowing.
Shakil Ahmed - Labour Gain from Liberal Democrat

Littleborough Lakeside
There are times when a predictor’s lot is not a happy one and we now move into murky waters. In 2011 Cllr Ann Stott won by 1076 to Labour’s 1002 with the then Liberal Democrat incumbent Rosemary Jones polling a poor 656. This year incumbent Cllr Peter Evans has moved from Liberal Democrat to Conservative and as an added complication it is a two horse race with no Liberal Democrat candidate. My sources on the ground indicate it is too close to call but, as a predictor, I do not have the luxury of neutrality. I shall therefore go with the NOP trend.
John Hartley - Labour Gain from Conservative

Milkstone and Deeplish
I said in my first post that the issue here was whether the electorate would vote ethnically or politically. Incumbent Cllr Mohammad Sharif has been a strong voice but he is no longer in the party of power and in addition has moved from Liberal Democrat to Conservative. Last year Labour’s Mohammed Zaman won by a vast majority of 1,748 and the impression from inside the ward is that this year the electorate will vote where the power is.
Terence Linden - Labour Gain from Conservative

Milnrow and Newhey
Murky waters again. Cllr Martin Rodgers won the seat last year with a narrow victory of 158 over Liberal Democrat incumbent Keith Swift, but a breakaway Independent Alliance candidate would have reduced that to 38 had his votes stayed Lib Dem. This year popular local Cllr Irene Davidson is standing but is pitted against the campaigning skills of Labour’s Allen Brett. Sources tell me that the Liberal Democrats are throwing everything bar the kitchen sink at it and the issue is whether that will be strong enough to duck the NOP trend. Once again ‘too close to call’ and I shall seek the shelter of the National Opinion Polls.
Allen Brett - Labour Gain from Liberal Democrat

Norden
Last year Cllr Ann Metcalfe held this seat by a majority of 968 over Labour, who took second place for the first time in the ward’s history, but with only 846 votes polled less than Cllr Metcalfe’s majority. This year the Conservative candidate is the long term incumbent Cllr James Gartside, Mayor Elect and one of the hardest working ward councillors in the borough. That should be sufficient to see him home.
James T Gartside - Conservative Hold

North Heywood
Labour’s Cllr Ray Dutton won this seat in 2011 with a majority of 739, his vote being 174 more than all the other candidates combined. Labour’s new, young candidate should therefore win comfortably.
Liam J O’Rourke - Labour Hold

North Middleton
Cllr Maureen Rowbotham was deselected by Labour and has chosen to stand as an Independent. She has some support around the Boarshaw area and is likely to dent last year’s Labour majority of 961 but, in a predicted good year for Labour, no more than that.
Pat Greenall - Labour Hold

Smallbridge and Firgrove
Cllr Jean Ashworth is defending her seat this year, having moved from Liberal Democrat to Conservative, and there is no doubt that she has an element of personal vote, mainly due to her NHS campaigning. However, the hard facts are that last year Labour’s Cllr Aftab Hussain polled 1,510 with Conservative 591 and Liberal Democrat 569. With a national swing now from Conservative to Labour, there is only one realistic prediction.
Amna Mir - Labour Gain from Conservative

South Middleton
Last year Labour’s Cllr Peter Williams held this seat by 380 votes over Conservative. This year Cllr Teresa Fitzsimons is the incumbent Conservative councillor and a strong candidate, but the national opinion polls are likely to negate that.
Peter Joinson - Labour Gain from Conservative

Spotland and Falinge
Labour gained this seat for the last two years and would expect to do so again. Technically it would be ‘Hold’ because the Liberal Democrat Barbara Todd switched to Labour and is retiring this year. Shefali Begum is the second Asian woman candidate for Labour this year and should do particularly well in the Falinge area. One possible blip is the Independent Carl Faulkner, who upped his vote last year from 561 to 659 at the expense of the Conservatives, but most people who vote see that power to change things is through the political parties, which is why Cllr Cecille Biant won with more than double his vote.
Shefali Begum - Labour Hold

Wardle and West Littleborough
Cllr Janet Darnborough held this seat for the Conservatives in 2011 with a majority of 940. Cllr Ashley Dearnley is the leader of the Conservative Group and the longest serving incumbent in the ward. He has held the seat through all political weathers and there is no reason to believe that that will change now.
Ashley Dearnley - Conservative Hold

West Heywood
Cllr Jacqui Beswick held this seat by 991 votes last year, and with 773 more than the other two parties combined. Leader of the Council Colin Lambert should expect to do equally as well this time. Although she has no chance in this seat, the pitch submitted by Conservative Jane Howard indicates that she might be looking for better in 2014. She also calls to mind a man of similar age who stood as a paper candidate for Labour in Norden and Bamford in 1986, but that’s another story.
Colin Lambert - Labour Hold

West Middleton
In the words of Rochdale Online Forum contributor JohnB, a ward where even the trees vote Labour. Only once has it failed to return a Labour councillor, with a deselected but previously popular Kevin Hunt taking it as an Independent in the dreadful Labour year of 1992. They weighed Phil Burke’s vote in 2011 and could certainly do the same for long serving Lil Murphy this year.
Lily Murphy - Labour Hold