Risk of localised disruption from heavy downpours today

The Met Office has issued a Yellow Warning across a swathe of the Northwest including Cheshire, Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Lancashire, valid from 9.00 this morning (15 June) to midnight on Saturday night (16 June).

This effectively covers two different weather regimes affecting the region today and tomorrow, as described below;

1) The main period of emphasis between now and tomorrow night is for this afternoon. Specifically, the warning covers the risk of localised disruption from scattered slow-moving heavy showers/downpours. Although any location within the 4 LRFs referred to could catch a shower the risk will be focussed more towards the eastern half of Cheshire, Greater Manchester and the eastern half of Lancashire, particularly in and around the Pennines. The main risk period will be from late morning in to the early evening and without wanting to exagerrate the risk there is the possibility of seeing hail, thunder/lightning, squally winds and localised torrential rain combining to bring very difficult driving conditions and the risk of short-notice surface water issues to those areas/communities affected.

2) As the downpour risk recedes this evening, so later tonight and through tomorrow we will see some further areas of rain moving across the region.
The risk of any disruption resulting from these is hard to assess at present but the Environment Agency will be monitoring conditions very carefully and this morning's Flood Guidance Statement (FGS), due out around 1030, will provide further information on the nature of any flood risk across the Northwest beyond from this evening, overnight and through Saturday. 

A band of heavy rain has moved north across much of England and Wales during Thursday night. This will be followed by further bands of rain, heavy at times for western parts of Wales through Friday and more widely across Wales and northern England during Friday night and well into Saturday.

Meanwhile, heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during Friday, with the main area of concern being across northern England, where these are likely to be slow moving with the risk of hail and squally winds.

Locally parts of southern and western Wales and the southern Pennines can expect 50-75 mm of rain during this period, whilst thunderstorms during Friday afternoon and evening could deliver as much as 30 mm within 2 hours in a few places in northern England.

The Met Office have issued a Yellow Warning of Rain

Valid from 09:00 on Fri, 15th Jun 2012 until 23:59 on Sat, 16th Jun 2012

Further heavy rain or showers will affect parts of Wales, the Midlands and northern England during Friday and Saturday.

The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

For more details please go to:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html