Black Friday and price cuts produce retail boom in November

Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce’s Chief Economist, Dr John Ashcroft

Commenting on the latest retail sales figures, John Ashcroft, Chief Economist at Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, said: “Retail Sales volumes increased by 6.4% in November compared to November last year. The value of sales increased by 4.3% compared with November 2013.

"The average weekly spend in the retail industry in November 2014 was £7.9 billion compared with £7.5 billion in November 2013 and £7.1 billion in October 2014. Online sales values increased by 12.9% year on year, with online now accounting for 11.5% of all retail sales. Average store prices fell by 2.0% in November 2014 compared with November 2013.

"The largest contribution to the year-on-year fall once again came from petrol stations. Prices in food stores also fell decreasing by 1.0%.

“Retailers reported a bonanza from ‘Black Friday’, this an American import, in which the Friday following Thanksgiving, retailers make large promotions. Price discounts boosted sales at department stores by 15.5% and household goods stores by 16.8% year-on-year. The volume of electrical household appliances sold, increased at the highest annual rate since records began, gaining 32.0% on the year.

“The steep rise in the year-on-year comparison from November was accentuated by the fact that last year’s Black Friday fell during December. December volumes may be less exciting as a result.

“For the year as a whole we expect retail sales volumes to increase by 3.7% in 2014, slowing slightly to 3.5% next year. Earnings are set to increase next year but then so too are base rates. The oil price fall is just for Christmas and not for life. Inflation is likely to be ahead of target by the final quarter next year.”